#56
The Race To November 2
September 26, 2004

 

 

Through The Summer
     As the clock ticks away the final weeks of the presidential campaigns, it is appropriate to update the April 29, 2004 Forecast, #51 The Presidential Campaign.  I closed that Forecast stating, Considering all of the above information, it appears that Bush will begin the final campaign drive this summer already falling behind Kerry, and unless Kerry fails to remedy his communications issues, he will win easily November 2. 

     Obviously, the contest has turned out to be a horse race, with the lead changing often but neither candi- date achieving a clear advantage over the other.  Bush obviously has remarkable staying power, for he survived (by sheer stubborn willfulness) devastating setbacks last November and this May and June from failures in Iraq when this and other astrologers predicted he wouldn't persevere.  Still, the race continues, and the planetary karmas inevitably guide the final result.  

     Bush did suffer major setbacks during his Saturn top-heavy planetary cycles (Dasas) of Saturn/Jupiter/Saturn from March 4 to July 27.  That Saturn was also then transiting his twelfth house of loss, added to his problems.  Old Saturn's influence upon Bush's first house of the self also wore him down physically.  This was seen in the June 26 Celestial Wheel photo of an obviously aged Bush.

     
     Bush's Saturn/Jupiter/Mercury planetary cycles from July 28 to December 6 (beyond the Novem- ber 2 election) restored his youthful demeanor and


George W. Bush
Planetary Cycles 2004
Saturn/Jupiter/Saturn  3/4 -- 7/27
Saturn/Jupiter/Mercury  7/28 -- 12/6

also the mercurial insincere charm that has made his fear mongering so convincing.  Yet, Bush's Mercury has two major afflictions.  

 

     First, Mercury rules the third house of desires and the twelfth of loss, which harms him through impulse -- for example, when he recently said the war against terrorism cannot be won.  Second, Saturn's placement with Mercury blocks the intellect, making him stubborn and unable to correct his failing policies.  That Saturn transited into his first house September 5 brings again a doubled Saturn influence -- harming Mercury further and also inhibiting Bush's ability to project.  All Bush can do now is promote his leadership ability by staying the course and endlessly claim his policies are working, despite the demonstrable facts that they are failing in Iraq and at home.

 

     Kerry picked up support during his potent Mercury/Mercury/Sun cycles from June 28 until August 10.

     However, when the placid Moon replaced the Sun on August 11, the Republican-inspired swift boat veterans attack knocked Kerry back.  The Republican Convention bashing was the second punch of this combination discrediting him  

     Kerry was also encumbered by Saturn tran- siting his eighth house until September 5, blocking his Mercury.  That Kerry's warrior Mars is retrograde is another influence delaying his response, although it makes him a great counter-puncher. 

     With Saturn out of the way since early Sept- ember, and Bush constrained to his messianic declarations, Kerry has been able to launch increasingly focused and effective attacks on Bush's demonstrable lies, for which Bush has no real defense.


John Kerry
Planetary Cycles 2004
Mercury/Mercury/Sun  6/28 -- 8/10
Mercury/Mercury/Moon  8/11 -- 10/22
Mercury/Mercury/Mars  10/23 -- 12/14

     (Note: Kerry's Mercury also suffers some harms, both in ruling difficult houses and being afflicted by Saturn and Mars.  Saturn's transit out of the eighth house, as mentioned above, alleviates some of the stress that has inhibited Kerry's clarity.  However, Kerry is known as a counter-puncher because his Moon/Mars/Sun combination gives him tremendous mental and personal power when he finally becomes motivated.)    

     At this juncture, then, it's a horse race, although perhaps World War I trench warfare is a better analogy. Both combatants are truly slugging it out from entrenched positions.  The ultimate questions are who will persevere, and also whether one or the other can launch a determinative attack.

     There are a number of planetary influences during the closing weeks of the presidential campaign that overlap and do not fit into a neat intervals.  The only remaining public events are the three upcoming presi- dential debates, which suggests the period from September 30 to October 13 is a defining period.  This leaves October 14 to the November 2 election date as a second and, of course, final interval for analysis.  Recent Celestial Wheels have discussed some of these planetary influences, giving a foundation to under- standing the karmas.

The Debates  -- September 30 through October 13
     The three presidential debates are scheduled for September 30 and October 8 and 13.  There are three major planetary influences coming into play for this interval.

     First, there is a final Kala Sarpa Yoga activation indicating a bitter fall harvest for Bush.  Kala Sarpa, translated as time serpent, brings a fated rise and fall in Bush's chart.  It was activated in Bush's chart for the last presidential election, making him president by court decree.  As there truly cannot be any other explanation for Bush ascending to the presidency, the Yoga must work in his chart.  Since Kala Sarpa is no longer active in his chart, but it is active in today's sky of world planetary karmas, Kala Sarpa signals Bush's fall -- rejection by the voters.

     Second, from September 24 through October 11, the definitive planetary influence that steers the campaign is the Sun/Mars/Mercury/Jupiter conjunction in Virgo -- stimulating righteous indignation and egocentric aggression for ferocious attacks.  This combination is in Bush's third house of desires and the performing arts, hardening and adding persuasive force to his actor presentation.  However, the third house does not accept well so much malefic planetary energy, which changes how the public perceives him from convincing to increasingly strident.

     For Kerry, however, this four planet stellium is in his eleventh house of goals and objectives, and the eleventh happens to be the one house in which all planets perform to advantage.  We've seen already Kerry's counter-punching with great effect. 

     The third planetary influence is the October 13 partial solar eclipse.  As stated in yesterday's Celestial Wheel, this eclipse does not block any of Kerry's planets -- For George Bush, however, the October 13 solar eclipse at 27:11 Virgo will be just over two degrees from his Jupiter at 25:02 Virgo and less than four degrees from his 23:36 Virgo Moon.  Occurring simultaneously with the last presidential debate in Tempe, Arizona, the eclipse will block Bush's ability to defeat his enemy (Kerry), and his public support will be greatly curtailed.

     The September 30 and October 8 debates, then, must be high energy confrontations driven by the Sun/Mars/Mercury/Jupiter stellium with Kala Sarpa energy harming Bush.  The October 13 debate will see Bush: already diminished by the first two debates, Kala Sarpa continuing to hem him in and his all-important Jupiter and Moon eclipsed.  Actually, the solar eclipse will have begun at 6 PM in the Arizona location and will therefore continue through the debate.  This timing can't be more harmful to Bush and is probably a Kala Sarpa effect.

     Keeping in mind these three underlying planetary influences, following are comments on each debate:

     September 30 in Miami, Florida  Both candidates will be running highly mental planets, elevating mental engagement.  Bush will be highly expressive and appealing but emotionally stressed.  Kerry will be forceful and direct with more personal warmth than usual.  This will be a test of who can keep cool and focused under stress.  Kerry should prevail.

 

Correction

    As explained in the October 3 Celestial Wheel, I erred in stating this second presidential debate will be October 5 in Cleveland.  The correct date is Friday, October 8 in Saint Louis.  Here's the revised analysis,

October 8 Saint Louis:  This is actually a much better day for Kerry because his Mercury will have passed beyond the Sun, allowing him to continue the sharp focus he achieved in the first debate.  Kerry's planetary cycles are also more mental and stimulate personal warmth.  Bush will, of course, attempt to dominate, to be the alpha male.  However, he will be too eager and impatient, even more so than the first debate, which will give Kerry further openings to counter and turn Bush's simplistic statements against him.  Look for Bush to both repeat his moral leadership claims and voice some new anti-Kerry slogans as he attempts to divert attention from his failed policies.  Bush must make every effort to restrain his temper, and this will conflict with his ability to project charm and confidence.

     October 13 in Phoenix, Arizona   This the day Bush is eclipsed, and he may actually appear diminished both in his ability to project energy and his physical self.  Kerry, the counter-puncher, will be able to press the advantage and close the debate series with a solid victory.

How The Public Will Perceive The Debates
      What the candidates offer and how they are received by the public relates directly to the polarization between conservative and liberal values which Bush has created since the summer of 2002, when this astrologer first became alarmed about an Iraq invasion.  See the July 22, 2002 Forecast, #1 August 2002 - July 2003.  The best articulation of this divide I've found is a September 25 Washington Post article entitled, How Exactly Are We Safer? http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A48883-2004Sep24.html  Below is a long excerpt: 

     What? Who? When? Bush stands before the United Nations and every other political forum and states with certainty that Iraq is on the way to being "secure, democratic, federal and free." Kerry charges that "terrorists are pouring across the border" and calls the invasion a "crisis of historic proportions."

     But most Americans have no way to refute or affirm the central question raised: Are we safer? Indeed, in the face of so many troubling unknowns and such fearful uncertainties, facts fall by the wayside. We are left relying on our beliefs, including our beliefs about human nature, about the way the world works.

     These beliefs reflect what George Lakoff has described as the two different worldviews of conservatives and liberals. A linguist by training and an ardent "re-framer" of progressive politics, Lakoff describes the great divide as related less to political ideology than to child-raising models. Conservatives subscribe to the "strict father model" while liberals abide by the "nurturant parent model."

     In a small handbook for progressives -- with the unfortunate title "Don't Think of an Elephant" -- he draws a line from the moral values of the strict-father family to foreign policy in the starkest terms: "Good and evil are locked in a battle. . . . Only superior strength can defeat evil and only a show of strength can keep evil at bay." This is the language that Bush uses against evildoers and in his unshakable defense of the war in Iraq.

     Nurturant parents have every bit as much at stake in protecting their children and their country. They have no illusions about empathizing with terrorists who behead their captives. But they have a (forgive me) nuanced view of the world in which security is calculated not just by body counts but also by the changing minds of those who can become either tomorrow's terrorists or democrats.

     Most Americans carry both models in their minds, but in times of trouble, they fall back to the protection of the strictest of fathers. As Bill Clinton once warned, "When people feel uncertain, they would rather have somebody who's strong and wrong than somebody who is weak and right." That is precisely Kerry's dilemma.

     The war in Iraq is a dangerous distraction from the war on terrorism. The president's rosy view is as fanciful as his "Mission Accomplished." But he has framed the issue of security so powerfully that many Americans can hardly hear the din of suicide bombs.

     The upcoming presidential debate series puts this most basic leadership issue front and center.  As Bush can only repeat his stay on course message, Kerry will have the opportunity to counter-punch holes in Bush's simplistic good and evil world view as being demonstrably untrue.  As Iraq is Bush's great misadventure, and Kerry has already refocused his campaign to attack on Iraq, during the debates Kerry can project the strong leadership persona needed to win by discrediting Bush.

The Race To The Finish
     Clearly, the underlying assumption in this Forecast is that the debates will be decisive.  There certainly will be more dirty attack politics, and Bush supporters will bring forward more than one October surprise.

     Given the debates turn the tide in the race by discrediting Bush, however, Republican attacks would likely be counterproductive.  Sooner or later, the townspeople stop believing the boy who cried wolf.

     As shown in Kerry's chart (above), he will change planetary cycles to Mercury/Mercury/Mars on October 23, giving him the extra counter-punch power to both beat back attacks and mobilize public opinion to his side.

     An update will follow this Race To November 2 Forecast following the debates.

 

Copyright 1999-- 2004 Doug Riemer